If the chamber comes up full it is because there are too many bullets in the gun………..

I have lost count of the number of times that I have heard somebody say that the best way to avoid accidents is to simply not fly. Although the hum our has worn a tad thin over the years, this idiom sums up the dilemma that faces managers of aviation operations every time they are required to make a decision.

Commercial flight operations demand the constant balancing of profit with protection. Sacrificing safety in the interests of increasing ones profit margin will almost certainly result in a mishap. But the direction of too many resources toward the control of risk renders operations too expensive and thus jeopardizes their viability.

So how does one determine whether the risks that threaten an operation are tolerable or not? And how does one manage the risks that are intolerable?

Before exploring the management of risk, let us make sure we fully understand some related concepts.Firstly, risk is the product of the severity of the consequences of a hazard, and the probability that such consequences will occur.

Secondly, a hazard is any condition, object or activity that holds the potential for adverse consequences and, lastly, safety is commonly defined as: “Freedom from unnecessary risk”.

If we likened the management of flight operations to a game of Russian roulette, bullets would represent uncontrolled hazards .The more uncontrolled hazards present in an operation,therefore,the fuller the cylinder of the revolver and the greater the risk posed to the participants of the game.

A number of strategies are available to the participant who wishes to optimize his/her chance of surviving a game of Russian roulette .Firstly, find out how many of the revolvers chambers contain bullets. Secondly, get rid of as many of those bullets as possible. Thirdly, a Kevlar helmet is a great way of mitigating occupational damage. And, lastly, if one is able to predict when a full chamber will be cocked into the firing position, one will know when not to squeeze the trigger.

Perhaps the most notable point made by this analogy is that operational risk management begins and ends with information regarding hazards. This, unfortunately, is a fact often forgotten by many operators.

Risk Factors

In order to make an operation safe, one must free it from unnecessary risk. This involves the continual identification of as many operational hazards as possible, the analysis of the risks associated there with, and the control of such risks to within levels deemed tolerable for continuation of operations.

Hazards are identified through audits, safety cases, hazard reports, surveys and various other means. The greater the number of hazards identified, the less the chance that we will be surprised by a “bullet” we did not know about.

Hence the significance of a reporting culture, a term that refers to the willingness and dedication with which ones personnel report hazards, as well as the spirit in which such reports are received and addressed by management.

Once identified, hazards must be analyzed to determine whether they are tolerable or not. An operational risk assessment views the severity of a prospective outcome in terms of injury, damage, environmental impact, and detriment to reputation, financial implications, loss of man-hours and any number of other factors affected by an aircraft accident.

The probability that the outcome might occur is assessed in terms of historical data (our experience) ,as well as a fair degree of reasonable synopsis ( for which imagination and judgment are required) .Obviously ,a higher risk factor will be coupled to a hazard that is very likely to result in serious injury and /or damage.

As illustrated above, a risk factor is dependent on the circumstances in which a hazard manifests.

The risk factor associated with a hazard will determine the urgency with which controls are put in place in order to reduce the risk to within tolerable levels. Such corrective actions employ technology, training (education) and regulations to implement a number of barriers that serve to eliminate, prevent, reduce or mitigate risk.

Note that risk is never entirely eliminated .Safe operations are those in which hazards have been controlled sufficiently to permit continued operation without unnecessary risk.

Risk Management

Successful risk management centre’s upon an organizations ability to implement corrective actions within the deadlines determined by risk factors.

Unfortunately, due to the human factor, it is commonplace that deadlines are allowed to slide, or that certain corrective actions are not implemented at all.

An organization serious about risk management will endeavor to eliminate this problem by enhancing its quality management system. For those who despair about the resources that this entails, you may take solace in the existence of software applications that seamlessly record safety reports, document audits, and track corrective action plans, all the while keeping users alerted to anomalies that threaten operational control.

Until recently, risk management was reactive and, at best, proactive in nature. Predictive risk management is a contemporary industry standard that involves the establishment and analysis of trends which, when projected, may indicate the nature and frequency of future mishaps.

This “crystal ball” eludes the management of many organizations since it hinges on the ability to record, arrange and analyze significant amounts of data, a task only effectively achieved with assistance of specifically designed software.

Although such software is readily available, it is often viewed as a luxury and thus an unjustifiable expense. This is somewhat ironic, considering that predictive risk management permits implementation of defenses, in the present, in order to prevent unnecessary expenditure in the future.

Risk management is not a particularly complicated undertaking. In fact, it is an exercise that we perform many times a day –albeit unconsciously –every time we make a decision. However, effective operational risk management is subject to the scrupulous recording of hazards and the consistent realization of corrective action deadlines.

Neglect of this practice is about as reckless as playing Russian roulette with a fully loaded gun, hoping that the next time you pull the trigger the round in the chamber will be a dud.

Hazards are identified through audits, safety cases, hazard reports, surveys and various other means. The greater the number of hazards identified, the less the chance that will be surprised by “bullet” we did not know about. Once identified, hazards must be analyzed to determine whether they are tolerable or not. An operational risk assessment views the severity of a prospective outcome in terms of injury, damage, environmental impact, and detriment to reputation, financial implications, loss of man-hour and any number of other factors affected by an aircraft accident.

Anthony Juma is the Editor and Senior Aviation Director at Wings Over Africa Aviation Limited. <br><a href='http://www.wingsoverafrica-aviation.com’> This is an Air Charter Company that specializes on Flight Air News On, The Management Of Flight Operations| Private Jet Charter Flights| Daily Scheduled Passenger Flights| Filming Charter Flights Kenya,Tanzania,Uganda,Rwanda,Burundi,DR Congo,Somalia,South Sudan ,Eastern & Central Africa. </a> The website has guided thousands of travelers to achieve their dream holiday. For more information and guidance, visit the site at http://www.wingsoverafrica-aviation.com/index.php/flight-news.html</a>